The phone is a canard, a false and misdirecting idol. Phones make us think the Mobile Revolution is about the phone. Not so much as it turns out. The mobile revolution is about what most revolutions are about – MONEY.
Two things came together today to help me see beyond the phone:
- Brad Silverberg, a VC from @IgnitionVC, explained the market difficulties faced by the new Windows tablet. “It is all about the apps,” he said. He went on to explain that a robust app ecosystem created a moat around a castle making market entry difficult. Developing an app “ecosystem” is difficult, time consuming and dependent on others. Silverberg believes Microsoft will spend hundreds of millions to recreate what Apple already has.
- There is a controversy about apps vs. the mobile web. Can responsive websites make up the functional difference apps provide? This is an apples to oranges comparison. Apps will win long term.
My MacBook Air uses apps not software. My laptop is just a big smart phone. It is easy to see why Apple is moving all programming to apps:
| Websites | Apps | |
| Many Moving Parts | Few Moving Parts | |
| Complex Code | Less Complex Code | |
| Long Dev Cycle | Short Dev Cycle | |
| User Specs Risk | No Specs Shift Risk | |
| Hard To Modify (Spaghetti) | Easy To Modify | |
| Requirement Changes=Big Deal | Change Is Easy (add a new block) | |
| Data Integration Hard | Data Integration Easy | |
| Market Changes Slow Response | Market Changes Fast Response | |
| BIG Risk | Small Risk | |
| Can Be Expensive | Less Expensive |
Throw in influence from “cloud computing” where code is smaller, more object oriented and floating out there somewhere and small, fast and related Lego block-like apps are in our future.
Don’t be fooled by the confusing canard. Apps win because they are cheaper, faster, and more responsive. Apps are ON your phone, but your phone is NOT where the smarts live.
Intelligence is located in smaller and smaller blocks floating in the cloud waiting to serve and capable of serving many at once. If that sounds cheaper for Apple, Microsoft and Google you win a cookie. Apps win because this revolution, like all revolutions, is about the MONEY.
My money is on more and more, faster and faster, better and better…apps.
